Midlands Property Market Update – October 2026
There’s been no shortage of property market headlines recently, and depending on which one you’ve read, you could be forgiven for feeling a little confused. Marketing prices are holding up, but buyers are becoming more cautious.
What does that mean for the Midlands?
House Prices Are Holding Up, But Buyers Are Becoming More Cautious. What Does That Mean For The Midlands?
I appreciate this month’s update is a little longer than usual, but there’s quite a lot happening in the property market that’s worth understanding.
I’ve broken it into sections, so please feel free to skip straight to the bits that are most relevant to you, whether you’re selling, buying, doing both or simply curious about what’s happening to property values.
And if you haven’t got time to read it all, there is a summary at the end.
There’s been no shortage of property market headlines recently, and depending on which one you’ve read, you could be forgiven for feeling a little confused.
One report suggests house prices are rising. Another says they’re falling. We’re hearing about higher mortgage rates, fewer buyers, longer selling times and uncertainty about the economy.
And, to be fair, there’s some truth in all of it.
The latest Rightmove House Price Index shows asking prices increasing again in October. However, the latest TwentyCi/TwentyEA report, which looks more closely at what’s actually happening to property sales, paints a more cautious picture.
Recent reports from RICS and the national press also point towards a slower market, with affordability and confidence becoming increasingly important.
So rather than choosing the statistics that make things sound better or worse than they really are, we’ve looked at the different reports together.
Because there are challenges worth being honest about. But there are also some encouraging signs that shouldn’t be overlooked.
And importantly, what happens nationally isn’t necessarily what’s happening in Rugby, Daventry, Northampton, Towcester or the surrounding villages.
1. First, Are House Prices Actually Rising Or Falling?
Let’s start with the headline.
According to Rightmove’s October 2026 House Price Index, the average asking price of a newly marketed property in Great Britain increased by 1% this month.
That takes the national average to £371,015, an increase of £3,575 compared with September.
It’s also the second consecutive monthly increase.
Sounds encouraging, doesn’t it?
But there’s more to the story.
Despite those increases, national asking prices remain 0.1% lower than they were this time last year.
And much of October’s rise has been influenced by London, where asking prices increased by 2.5% after a particularly difficult summer.
There’s also an important distinction worth making.
These are asking prices, not completed sale prices.
Rightmove measures what sellers are advertising their properties for when they first come onto the market. It doesn’t necessarily tell us what buyers are eventually agreeing to pay.
And this is where the TwentyCi report becomes interesting.
Its latest figures show that advertised property prices were 1.2% lower during January to September compared with last year.
However, completed transaction prices were actually 1.4% higher annually in July.
How can both be true?
Partly because a property completing in July may have had its price agreed several months earlier, under different market conditions. The reports also measure different groups of properties.
So while the headlines might appear contradictory, they’re not necessarily wrong.
What I think we can reasonably conclude is that property values are broadly holding up, but achieving those values is becoming more challenging in certain parts of the market.
That doesn’t mean every property is worth less, and it certainly doesn’t mean every property is worth more.
2. What’s Happening Here In The Midlands?
This is probably the most useful part of the figures for anyone living in our area.
According to Rightmove, the October figures are:
East Midlands
- Average asking price: £290,907
- Monthly change: +0.4%
- Annual change: +0.3%
- Average time to find a buyer: 74 days
West Midlands
- Average asking price: £299,055
- Monthly change: +0.3%
- Annual change: +1.2%
- Average time to find a buyer: 66 days
So both regions have experienced relatively modest asking-price increases, rather than the 1% reported nationally.
But the TwentyCi figures add another interesting perspective.
During July, August and September, the number of sales agreed fell by 5% in the East Midlands and 8% in the West Midlands compared with the same period last year.
That’s quite telling.
The West Midlands has experienced stronger annual asking-price growth, but a greater reduction in the number of properties finding buyers.
It doesn’t necessarily mean prices are about to fall, but it does demonstrate why higher asking prices shouldn’t automatically be interpreted as a stronger market.
For us, this is particularly relevant because Rugby falls within the West Midlands, while Daventry, Northampton, Towcester and most of our surrounding villages sit within the East Midlands.
However, even those regional averages only tell us so much.
A three-bedroom semi-detached home in Hillmorton, a detached property in Crick and a village cottage in Braunston could all attract very different levels of interest.
Their competition, the buyers looking for them and the prices people are prepared to pay can vary enormously.
That’s why we always say the market for your individual property matters far more than a national or regional percentage.
3. More Properties For Sale, But Fewer Buyers Committing
This is one of the clearest trends across both reports.
According to TwentyCi, new properties coming onto the market increased by 1.9% during the first nine months of 2026.
But sales agreed fell by 5.7%.
Rightmove’s October figures tell a similar story, with new listings 3% higher than last year, buyer enquiries 9% lower and sales agreed down 8%.
Rightmove also reports that the number of properties available is at its highest level for this time of year since 2014.
So there are more homes competing for fewer active buyers.
That doesn’t mean buyers have disappeared.
But when people have plenty of choice, they’re naturally going to compare properties more carefully.
A buyer looking for a £350,000 family home might have several to consider. They’ll compare room sizes, gardens, parking, condition, location and how much work they might need to do.
And if one offers better overall value, that’s probably the one they’ll choose.
I don’t think that’s unreasonable. Buying a home is a substantial financial commitment.
But it does mean sellers need to understand exactly what they’re competing against.
There’s a big difference between having your property advertised for sale and having a property that buyers are prepared to purchase at its asking price.
4. Mortgage Rates Are Having A Bigger Influence
If there’s one figure in the Rightmove report that deserves particular attention this month, it’s mortgage rates.
The average two-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to 5.55%, compared with 5.29% in September.
For context, it was 4.25% before the conflict in Iran began affecting financial markets earlier this year.
According to Rightmove, that increase has added approximately £250 a month to the cost of a typical new mortgage since February.
That’s around £3,000 a year.
And that makes a difference.
Imagine you’re a buyer who has spent several months looking for the right property.
You’ve worked out your budget and found something you really like, but your monthly mortgage repayments are now noticeably higher than they were when you started searching.
You might still want to move, but suddenly the figures aren’t quite as comfortable.
That could mean looking at slightly less expensive properties, finding a larger deposit or reconsidering what you’re prepared to offer.
And it has a knock-on effect for people moving up the property ladder too.
If borrowing the additional money to purchase a larger home has become more expensive, that can influence how much someone is prepared to spend.
This is why I think affordability is becoming just as important as property values.
A buyer might believe a property is worth the asking price but simply not be comfortable with the monthly repayments.
5. What About The Negative Headlines?
I think it’s important to acknowledge what’s being reported in the national press.
Recent coverage from the BBC, Reuters, The Guardian and property industry publications has highlighted weakening demand, mortgage pressures and concerns about the months ahead.
The latest RICS survey has also reported weaker buyer enquiries and downward pressure on prices.
These aren’t things we should simply dismiss.
And I certainly wouldn’t want anyone reading this to think we’re pretending the market is particularly easy at the moment.
It isn’t.
Some properties are taking longer to sell. Some asking prices are being reduced. And some people are choosing to wait until there’s more certainty about mortgage rates, the economy and the forthcoming Budget.
But that doesn’t mean the property market has stopped.
People still need to move for all sorts of reasons. Families grow, circumstances change, jobs move, relationships change and people retire or want a different lifestyle.
And there’s some genuinely encouraging data worth considering.
According to TwentyCi, HMRC recorded 757,200 residential transactions between January and August 2026.
That’s 3.1% fewer than last year.
However, it’s also 14.2% higher than in 2023 and 9.5% higher than in 2024.
And remember, 2025 was an unusual comparison because changes to Stamp Duty encouraged some people to complete earlier in the year.
So although we’re seeing fewer transactions than last year, we’re still seeing more than in either 2023 or 2024.
There’s a note of caution, though.
TwentyCi reports that August’s completed transactions were 8.4% lower than a year earlier. With fewer sales being agreed in recent months, that could mean quieter completion numbers towards the end of the year.
So there are positives, but there are also reasons to remain realistic.
I think that’s a much fairer assessment than simply describing the market as either booming or collapsing.
6. How Long Is It Taking To Sell – And Are Sales Still Falling Through?
Here’s another interesting finding.
According to TwentyCi, the average time between putting a property on the market and agreeing a sale is currently 75 days nationally.
But finding a buyer is only half the story.
The average time between agreeing a sale and exchanging contracts is now 127 days.
Put those two averages together and we’re looking at around six and a half months from going on the market to exchanging contracts, potentially longer before completion.
That’s quite a long time, particularly for someone hoping to coordinate a sale and an onward purchase.
And it’s why we place so much importance on preparing properties properly before marketing and actively managing the legal process once a buyer has been found.
There’s some better news here, though.
TwentyCi reports that the number of sales falling through has decreased by 9.5% compared with last year.
The proportion of concluded listings experiencing at least one fall-through has improved from 24.1% in 2025 to 22.9% this year.
That’s still more than one in five, which is far too many in my opinion.
But it’s encouraging that the trend is improving.
There are also some interesting figures around asking-price reductions.
Nationally, TwentyCi reports that 38.5% of concluded listings have needed at least one reduction during 2026.
However, the Midlands is one of the areas where reduction rates have actually been falling.
That suggests initial asking prices here may be becoming better aligned with what buyers are prepared to pay.
It doesn’t mean properties aren’t being reduced. But it’s another example of why the national picture doesn’t always reflect our local market.
7. Different Property Types Are Behaving Differently
One of the more interesting parts of TwentyCi’s latest report looks at the difference between houses and flats.
Nationally, flats are becoming more difficult to sell compared with houses.
TwentyCi reports that flats listed during Q3 2026 had a likelihood-to-sell figure of approximately 41%.
The report also suggests that service charges, leasehold costs, maintenance and other ownership considerations are affecting buyer decisions.
That’s not to say flats are bad properties or that people shouldn’t buy them.
But buyers increasingly want to understand the costs and responsibilities that come with ownership.
Interestingly, three-bedroom properties have the highest likelihood of selling among the bedroom categories analysed, at 59.8%.
And there’s another changing trend worth mentioning.
Homeowners aged over 55 accounted for 44.1% of properties coming onto the market in England during Q3 2026, according to TwentyCi.
That’s increased from 37.5% in the equivalent quarter of 2019.
Many people in this age group are considering downsizing, although that doesn’t always mean buying something dramatically smaller.
Sometimes it’s about less maintenance, fewer stairs, a more manageable garden or being closer to family and facilities.
It’s another reminder that the reasons people move, and the types of properties they’re looking for, are constantly changing.
8. What If You’re Selling?
If you’re thinking about selling, I think the most important thing is to approach the market with your eyes open.
There are still buyers, and properties are still selling for good prices.
But we shouldn’t pretend that every property will sell quickly or achieve whatever price someone decides to ask.
Getting the marketing price, presentation and marketing right from the beginning is particularly important when buyers have plenty of choice.
I’d want to understand what similar properties have actually sold for, what else is currently available and how your property compares.
And once marketing begins, I’d want to pay close attention to the feedback.
Are people looking online but not arranging viewings? Are they viewing but not offering? What other properties are they comparing yours with?
Sometimes the answer might be price. Sometimes it could be presentation, condition or something we can’t change.
But understanding the reason gives us a much better chance of making the right decision.
And if you’re not in any particular hurry to move, that’s absolutely fine too.
There’s no rule saying every homeowner needs to sell now.
The important thing is understanding your options and having a sensible plan.
9. What If You’re Buying?
For buyers, the current market does offer some opportunities.
There’s generally more choice, and in some circumstances there may be more room for negotiation.
You may have more time to compare properties properly rather than feeling under pressure to make an immediate decision.
But that doesn’t mean every seller will accept a substantially lower offer.
Some properties are priced sensibly and still attract strong interest.
Others may have been available for longer and offer more opportunity for discussion.
I’d also encourage buyers to pay particular attention to mortgage affordability.
Knowing what a lender might be prepared to lend is useful, but knowing what you feel comfortable paying each month is even more important.
The best purchase isn’t necessarily the property with the biggest discount.
It’s the property that suits your needs and finances at a price you’re comfortable with.
10. What If You’re Selling AND Buying?
This is something I think gets overlooked far too often.
If you’re selling one property to buy another, it’s easy to become completely focused on the price you’re achieving for your current home.
Understandably so.
But you really need to look at the whole move.
For example, suppose you accept £10,000 less for your property than you originally hoped.
That might feel disappointing.
But if you’re buying a more expensive property and negotiate £15,000 off that purchase, you’ve actually improved your overall position by £5,000 compared with those original figures.
That’s only an illustration, of course, but it makes an important point.
The difference between what you sell for and what you buy for can matter more than either figure individually.
And there’s another benefit to securing a buyer.
Being in a position to proceed can make you much more attractive when negotiating on the property you want to purchase.
So rather than trying to predict whether prices might rise or fall over the coming months, it may be more useful to look at whether you can make the whole move work comfortably now.
In Summary – What Does October Really Tell Us?
I don’t think October’s figures suggest a property market that’s either particularly strong or on the verge of collapse.
What they show is a market that’s continuing to function, but one where people are becoming more cautious about their decisions.
National asking prices have increased, but much of that rise has been influenced by London.
Here in the Midlands, price movements have been modest, while the number of sales being agreed has declined compared with last year.
Mortgage rates are affecting affordability, buyers have more choice and properties are generally taking longer to sell.
But there are positives too.
Completed transaction volumes remain above 2023 and 2024 levels. Fewer sales are falling through, and price-reduction trends in the Midlands are improving.
So while the market is undoubtedly more challenging, people are still moving.
For me, the biggest difference is that achieving a successful move increasingly depends on getting the individual decisions right.
The asking price. The presentation. The marketing. Understanding the buyer’s position. Having the right information ready. And managing the sale properly once a buyer has been found.
Because the property market in Rugby won’t necessarily behave like the market in Daventry. And what works for a family house in Northampton may be completely different from what works for a cottage in Braunston or a bungalow in Woodford Halse.
That’s why local knowledge matters, and why a national headline should be the beginning of a conversation rather than the final answer.
If you’re thinking about selling, buying, doing both or simply wondering what the latest figures might mean for your own home, please feel free to get in touch.
You don’t need to be ready to move, and there’s no obligation to do anything.
If you have a question about the market at the moment, ask us.
Myself or one of the Campbells team will be happy to talk it through with you.
Jamie
You can view the Rightmove House Price Index Here: CLICK HERE